First published on The Drum: 15/03/2011
Context is everything. All of a sudden Labor’s political predicament does not seem as dire; no-one is dead or missing; nuclear reactors aren’t melting down; the only after-shocks are electoral.
The enormity of the Japan catastrophe wipes everything else from public consciousness, allowing a wounded prime minister and her team to step back from the limelight, reflect and regroup.
As this week’s Essential Report shows, there is a path to repairing the damage the government has suffered and a way of setting up a debate that could, in the long-term, see it regain the political initiative.
Like so much in politics, the secret lies in the questions you ask. Ask whether people support a price on carbon and the answer is a decisive ‘no’.
15
Memo Tony: Shit’s happening
First published on The Drum: 15/02/2011
That philosopher to the common-folk, Tony Abbott, is this week dealing with his own slings and arrows as he enters the political twilight zone of disapproval from which some never return.
Despite ongoing difficulties within the Labor Government, Abbott is showing no signs of establishing himself as anything more than an attack dog whose fortunes rise when he runs negative on issues that happen to also be currently unpopular with the public.
This leaves him exposed when he has a bad week, such as the past one when he split his front bench by attempting to come up with a way of paying for flood reconstruction by cutting back anti-terrorism programs before nearly jobbing a TV reporter.
As this week’s Essential Report shows the response has been a sharp rise in disapproval to 46 per cent and drop-off in approvals to 37 per cent. To put this into perspective, the ALP moved on Kevin Rudd when his disapproval rating hit 47 per cent, with 41 per cent approval.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan | 29 Mar | 5 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb 2011 | |
| Total approve | 37% | 33% | 37% | 41% | 43% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 42% | 38% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 50% | 47% | 44% | 37% | 45% | 40% | 39% | 37% | 46% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 8% |
| Approve | 32% | 25% | 29% | 32% | 31% | 31% | 34% | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 28% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 24% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 22% | 24% | 22% | 16% | 23% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 22% | 20% | 16% |
First published on The Drum: 08/02/2011
When the floods have receded, the cyclone has blown, the bushfires have burned out and Sydneysiders can sleep again, one question will remain: what if the hippies are right?
Willingness to convince the public there is a link between extreme weather and climate change will go a long way towards determining whether the Prime Minister can meet her own KPI of securing a price on carbon.
Recent history shows that the public responds to the need for action on climate change when warnings are being reinforced by their own experiences and observations. It is no coincidence that support for action peaked in the middle of the last drought and fell away as weather patterns returned to something close to normal.
Now we have a summer from climate apocalypse central casting – but as this week’s Essential Report shows – climate change is barely on the radar.
First published on The Drum: 01/02/2011
The nation opened their hearts to Queensland as floods threatened communities and cities over summer, but now they are being asked to open their wallets it appears to be a very different story.
After more than two decades of being conditioned to expect prosperity without sacrifice, Australians seem in no mood to kick the can when it comes to rebuilding Queensland’s infrastructure.
In the first public polling of attitudes towards the proposed floods levy, Essential Research has found majority opposition to the modest impost proposed by the Prime Minister.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government introducing a one-off levy on taxpayers to pay for damage caused by the recent floods?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Qld | NSW | Vic | Other states | |
| Total approve | 39% | 63% | 23% | 48% | 46% | 35% | 37% | 43% |
| Total disapprove | 53% | 31% | 73% | 41% | 46% | 57% | 56% | 51% |
| Strongly approve | 12% | 24% | 3% | 19% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 14% |
| Approve | 27% | 39% | 20% | 29% | 35% | 25% | 25% | 27% |
| Disapprove | 24% | 20% | 28% | 21% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 29% | 11% | 45% | 20% | 25% | 32% | 29% | 29% |
| Don’t know | 8% | 6% | 5% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 9% |
First Published on The Drum 21/12/2010
If our politicians are feeling bloody and bruised after a torrid year of spills and thrills, spare a thought for the one group on the national stage that had a harder time of it in 2010 – the humble pollster.
This was the year when hand wringing about the malign impact of political research became a national sport; if there was a problem with politics, political research was the cause. We were to blame for the uninspiring election campaign; for the dumbing down of political reporting; for robbing the ALP of its soul.
So as a purveyor of the Dark Art I want to end the year with a plea for understanding for the minority group I am part of, stealing the catchcry of the Shooters Lobby in the 1990s to proudly declare ‘polls don’t kill people, people kill people’.
Before doing so, I will readily admit that political research can be put to poor use – running focus groups to get ‘permission’ from the electorate to pursue particular policies is to misunderstand the point of such research.
Read more »
First Published on Crikey Thursday 24th June
Essential Reports polls taken over the last 2 years show how Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have declined since he almost unprecedented figures he achieved following his election through to early last year. Up to March last year approval hovered around the high 60% level into the low 70%. Is net approval (i.e. approve minus disapprove) was around the mid 40% level.
Throughout 2009 and early 2010 his approval went into steady decline but still remained in positive territory. At the end of March he recorded 53% approval and 36% disapproval. However, the most dramatic shift occurred in April and May when his approval first entered negative territory with 41% approve and 47% disapprove. The decline appeared to be accelerating.
Some of the reasons for this sudden decline can be found in how the personal perceptions of Kevin Rudd changed from 2009 to May this year. His attribute ratings showed significant falls in the percentage of people who considered him to be a capable leader (72% to 55%), good in a crisis (60%-44%) and trustworthy (51%-41%). Meanwhile his ratings for “out of touch with ordinary people” increased from 41% to 55%. It indicates a significant loss of confidence in his performance as Prime Minister.
Last week’s Essential Report showed only weak support for Kevin Rudd to lead the Labor Party to the next election – 40% thought the Labor Party would have better chance of winning the election if they changed leader and 37% thought Kevin Rudd was the best person to lead the labor Party. Even among Labor voters only 66% supported Kevin Rudd as leader and 23% though they should change. Read more »
First published in The Punch 21st June 2010
This is the week when another round of disastrous opinion polls was meant to spark a mass uprising within the Labor Caucus, as members convinced they were facing one-term oblivion hitched their wagon to Julia Gillard.
Everything was in place, a bunch of unsourced comment pieces predicting a move on the PM, an early Newspoll published in Monday’s Australian. And then? Well apart from a slight narrowing in preferred PM, no real movement in the polls.
Entering the spirit of leadership speculation, Essential Research asked our own series of leadership questions. What emerges is a completely different story – the failure of Tony Abbott to convince voters he is the man to lead the Coalition to the election. Now before you all start flaming me (again) for being a Left-ist agent of the evil ALP, let’s have a look at the questions we asked. Read more »
18
Polling to the People
The Essential Report is fast becoming one of the nation’s most-quoted polls – after all it’s regular, it’s insightful and it’s free.
The fact that EMC has been able to produce and promote the poll highlights much that is good with the capacity of new media to create and share information.
So how do we get to give away so much polling every week?
Well it starts with relationships. Your Source are one of the companies who pioneered the development of online panels. They have built up a panel of more than 70,000 participants, who receive incentives (redeemable credits to shop at Myer) and work a weekly national omnibus, mainly for commercial clients. Read more »
Subscribe to the Unspun
cforms contact form by delicious:days
Unspun Categories
- 6.30 with George Negus
- Campaigning
- Canberra Report
- Digital
- Doddcast
- Election
- EMC International
- Environment
- Essential Report
- Keep our Cops
- Network Ten
- Polling
- Research
- Sky News
- social media
- Sport
- The Drum
- The Punch
- Uncategorized
- Web and Design