You would have to completely disregard the polls, history and any semblance of common sense to predict a Labor victory in the March 2011 NSW election.
Although there’s no such thing as a sure bet in Australian politics, a NSW Coalition government in 2011 is about as close as you’re likely to get. (The bookies have Labor at $6.25 to win next year. You won’t find those sort of odds in any 2011 NRL fixture.)
This climate of certainty makes a traditional approach to election time campaigning impossible.
First Published on The Punch 31/08/2010
When the political history of 2010 is written, every element of the closest election in a generation will be rightly scrutinized. The winning side will get home by a hair’s breadth but could it be hair that determines the result?
Because there is a minority group whose natural connection with their chief advocate did not translate into votes on August 22 Australia’s rangas turned on Julia Gillard at the moment she needed their support most.
Exclusive hair-based research from the Punch shows that redheads turned their locks away from Gillard, being the least likely hair coloured group to support the ALP.
Source: Essential Media Communications
First Published on The Punch 17/08/2010
The last week of elections is white line fever time. It’s the moment when history is written and the stakes are amplified and everything counts from the fliers, to the bunting, to the final ads, to the body language.
Just over 14 million Australians are registered to vote this Saturday – and if you believe the figure that 10 per cent don’t make up their mind until election day that means that the 1.4 million people who will decide this election are still in play.
So, the last week of the election begins. For the pundits, exhaustion sets in and it’s only the crazy brave and the well organised who dare to rest.
The remaining time is counted not in sleeps, but in news cycles.
From last night, it would appear the ALP would go into their launch today without the ghosts of their past causing further instability. Latham’s a lunatic, and even if he’s right, so what. And Kevin came off as a self-serving Kim Hughes Bob Hawke- style loser who you think we should be glad is gone.
This is grand final week in politics. The parties are going for the bogan vote and the ‘don’t knows’ are coming in from the cold.
Strangely, in politics, it’s the bogans who come in at the last minute. While in football, the people who know who they’re voting for often don’t pick a team until the final week.
After the eliminations and recriminations, this is the week of the parade, the special breakfasts, a cross dressing footy show and when everyone goes hell for leather on election day.
First Published on The Punch 27/07/2010
If you are a political junkie like me, chances are you found Sunday night’s debate a little like watching a nil-nil draw without even the climax of the penalty shoot-out. About the only thing more boring than the debate is the pundits who say the debate was boring.
It’s the curse of Australian elections, if you are engaged in politics and have a defined set of ideological values, then the campaign has very little to do with you.
Put another way, if you are reading The Punch the parties don’t really care what you think. Read more »
The election media landscape has changed forever, the revolution will not be televised.
Gone are the days of one-way election communications, the traditional print and television campaigns of the major parties may have become larger, slicker and more targeted, but they are still functions of the throw it at the wall and see what sticks mentality.
Survivor, Masterchef, Australian Idol started the participation craving, the web and social media gave it a voice. We all want to be heard, to judge and to vote someone off this island. We want to sit on our couches watching news channels or political commentary shows, not talking to our (un)loved ones, but tweeting out live commentary to our new family, the masses. #justsayin
The next day watercooler conversation is dead, colleagues, friends and networks have already torn every issue apart, judge, jury and executioner. And shouldn’t it have always been this way? Read more »
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