First published on The Drum: 31/05/2011

The climate change debate may be getting warmer with much hot air expended over who should and should not say “Yes”; but the real question for those who want action is “do you accept the science?”

More than party political affiliation, a belief that climate change is real is the key determinant of whether or not someone will support the Federal Government’s carbon price.

It stands to reason really; people who do not accept the science will be hard-pressed to be convinced of the need to pay more for carbon-based products – regardless of any compensation package.

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First published on The Drum: 24/05/2011

Tony Abbott’s attempts to turn the nation’s richest households into welfare victims has resulted in a self-inflicted political wedge that turns the Coalition’s creed of self-sufficiency onto its own support base.

It was the sideshow of budget week, reporters scouring the nation for hard-working Aussie families, victims of Labor’s decision to finally begin winding back the system of universal direct cash payments that became a feature of the Howard years.

Manufacturing outrage at the moves to cap payments to families on incomes of under $150,000 was always a big ask; after all a constituency of 15 per cent – concentrated at levels far above the threshold – is hardly a mass movement.

As results from this week’s Essential Report show, the measures had the majority support of not just Labor and Green voters, but also Coalition voters and families earning above the threshold.

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First published on The Drum: 17/05/2011

The compelling narrative emerging from the Canberra Press Gallery is that Labor is dead, Gillard is a dud leader and the whole show should put itself out of its misery and hand power to the Coalition.

It’s a message reinforced with the release of each major opinion poll; take this week ‘Budget falls flat’, ‘Gillard on the nose’, ‘More troubles with boatpeople’.

The problem is that polls and analysis are completely different beasts and if you judge the national debate purely on the numbers, there is a very different story – a government weighed down by a major reform, stabilising in key areas.

1. Preferred Party

The Coalition has an election-winning lead, but it is two years out from the election. The polling numbers have been stable since the announcement of the carbon tax – proof that Labor requires a long game if it is to win the next election.

This week’s Essential Report actually picks up a minor bounce to Labor, exaggerated by some rounding issues, but like the other polls, Labor is behind but not miles behind.

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First published on The Drum: 10/05/2011

Today’s budget will pit Treasurer Wayne Swan against an increasingly grumpy elephant in the corner, with growing concerns about cost of living pressures beginning to colour people’s broader outlook on politics.

Since the Global Financial Crisis, Essential has been picking up a growing determination by people to rein in their spending and increase savings; but at the same time grocery prices, housing prices, fuel prices and the cost of water and power have all been rising.

The result has been an almost emotional response for many voters – “we are trying to do the right thing with our household economy, but we are being frustrated by forces beyond our control”. The following responses complied as part of the Channel Ten Essential Lifestyle Index, illustrate the point.

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Household budget frustrates
Publish Date: 9th May 2011 7:26 PM
Duration: 5:47

The rising cost of everyday items infuriates Australians, a 6.30 survey finds.

Watch it here

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First published on The Drum: 03/05/2011

The vindication of Lindsay Tanner’s thesis that the Canberra Press Gallery has turned politics into a celebrity blood sport may be the fact that his key argument is being largely ignored.

Behind the war stories, Tanner’s thrust is that the trivialisation of politics is a natural function of a media industry fighting for its very survival under the pressure of technological change, increased competition and dwindling audiences.

With so much focus on our twin domains of media and politics we couldn’t resist using this week’s Essential Report to test some of these propositions.

First, we tested people’s level of interest in politics, finding that while older Australians are highly engaged, younger people increasingly are not.

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First published in The Mercury, 30/4/11.

The problem of asylum seekers, and what to do with them, has been a touchstone issue in Australian politics for well over a decade.

From the Tampa debacle, the “children overboard” controversy, the awful tragedies of the Siev X and the Christmas Island boat disaster, to the Villawood riots – asylum seekers have been an ever-present source of community angst.

Now the asylum seeker circus has come to Tasmania, and it’s already getting rough. Read more »