First published on The Drum: 29/03/2011
New South Wales political history was being written on Saturday night. Now it is being rewritten with key Labor figures refusing to accept that the scale of the debacle came down to their own blind pursuit of power.
Former NSW premier Morris Iemma, along with his renegade treasurer Michael Costa have taken to the media claiming it was the party’s failure to allow the privatisation of electricity (read, influence of the unions) that was at the root of Labor’s demise.
A more sober analysis of the poll data suggests the opposite may be true, the reason Labor got hammered was that 39 per cent of people who identify themselves as Labor voters could not bring themselves to vote for this government. And for many of these voters, the power sell-off was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
Tomorrow voters across NSW will be lining up to take a punt on their next government. Who are the favourites, who are the outsiders, and where are the value bets? The Angry Punter has cast his eye over the political horse flesh and provided his tips exclusively for The Unspun.
Race 1 – Premier of NSW Cup
This is supposedly a two-horse race, but the burly stallion Bazza O’Fazza will start at shorter odds than Black Caviar. Little value for punters in this one.
Bazza O’Fazza – Long considered to be little more than a plodder, Bazza O’Fazza has developed into a genuine stayer with a wily sense of timing. Has been set for this race, and will be very hard to beat.
Nobody’s Puppet – The imported glamour filly from has always been highly regarded, but has been hampered by a terrible preparation this time around. A number of her ALP stable mates have been very frisky in the mounting yards, and this has caused endless distractions for young trainer Sam Dastyari. Nobody’s Puppet has earned respect for simply getting to the starting gates under the circumstances. Anything better than last by 15 lengths will be considered a success.
First published on The Drum: 22/03/2011
Beyond its gob-smacking human tragedy and the looming economic catastrophe, the Japanese tsunami has thrown a radioactive wildcard into the global debate over climate change.
The fallout from the meltdown of Japanese nuclear reactors will undermine the until-now successful attempts by the nuclear industry to reposition itself as part of the global warming solution.
As this week’s Essential Report shows, the public had been coming around to the idea that developing nuclear power in Australia was acceptable. This has changed dramatically over the past seven days with one quarter of all Australians changing their position.
Q. Do you support or oppose Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity?
| 27 Jan 09 | 20 Dec 10 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Total support | 43% | 43% | 35% | 29% | 46% | 18% | |
| Total oppose | 35% | 37% | 53% | 58% | 43% | 78% | |
| Strongly support | 14% | 16% | 12% | 10% | 17% | 7% | |
| Support | 29% | 27% | 23% | 19% | 29% | 11% | |
| Oppose | 21% | 21% | 21% | 23% | 22% | 15% | |
| Strongly oppose | 14% | 16% | 32% | 35% | 21% | 63% | |
| Don’t know | 22% | 19% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 5% |
First published on The Drum: 15/03/2011
Context is everything. All of a sudden Labor’s political predicament does not seem as dire; no-one is dead or missing; nuclear reactors aren’t melting down; the only after-shocks are electoral.
The enormity of the Japan catastrophe wipes everything else from public consciousness, allowing a wounded prime minister and her team to step back from the limelight, reflect and regroup.
As this week’s Essential Report shows, there is a path to repairing the damage the government has suffered and a way of setting up a debate that could, in the long-term, see it regain the political initiative.
Like so much in politics, the secret lies in the questions you ask. Ask whether people support a price on carbon and the answer is a decisive ‘no’.
Alcohol and sport have had a long, intimate and often uncomfortable relationship.
To their enormous credit, however, the South Sydney Rabbitohs enthusiastically accepted our invitation to become involved in the Last Drinks campaign, and already their involvement is helping the campaign to reach an important new audience.
The Last Drinks campaign is a joint project backed by the Police Association of NSW, the Australian Medical Association (NSW), the Health Services Union and the NSW Nurses’ Association.
It’s purpose is to reduce the amount of alcohol-fuelled violence in the community – and in the process to make life safer for the front-line police officers, doctors, nurses and paramedics who deal with it every weekend.
First published on The Drum: 08/03/2011
The media works in eight-hour news cycles, politicians live and die by three-year cycles, while the planet’s climate is working on a significantly longer time frame.
The way these three cycles interplay over the next few months will determine not only the outcome of the next federal election but whether Australia will be a beneficiary or a victim of the shift in energy use that climate change will inevitably require*.
As this week’s Essential Report shows the Government has taken a short-term hammering after it’s decision to move on a carbon price. Not only has the Government failed to win popular support for its carbon pricing scheme, this has translated into a 4 per cent turnaround in the Two Party Preferred.
Of particular concern to Labor would be the high level of strong opposition, compared to strong support for the plan and the fact that barely half of Labor voters are backing the scheme.
First published on The Drum: 01/03/2011
Here is the polling that is driving Scott Morrison’s subterranean attack on Muslims, confirmation that a majority of Australians are concerned about their numbers.
For too long conservative blowhards like Morrison have been running agendas that directly reference these findings but because they have remained hidden in a desk drawer they are merely debating an issue.
After much soul-searching, Essential has decided to commit an act of political interruption. We debated whether it was worth giving voice to these attitudes long and hard, but we believe getting this stuff out in the open is the only way to silence the dog whistle.
Q. Are you concerned about the number of Muslim people in Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Total concerned | 57% | 50% | 69% | 32% | |
| Total not concerned | 38% | 46% | 28% | 68% | |
| Very Concerned | 28% | 21% | 37% | 12% | |
| Somewhat concerned | 29% | 29% | 32% | 20% | |
| Not very concerned | 21% | 23% | 19% | 27% | |
| Not at all concerned | 17% | 23% | 9% | 41% | |
| Don’t know/Refused | 5% | 4% | 2% | — |
The battlelines for this year’s federal budget have been drawn with the government and opposition performing the ritual flexing of their fiscal muscles to show they can conquer the deficit.
The prime minister used her speech to the Whitlam Institute last week to match the opposition’s economic machismo, accepting that the test of her leadership credentials will be her ability to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13. But, as this week’s Essential Report shows the public reject the key point of the pyrotechnics, with the majority of voters across party lines saying they would support delaying a return to surplus if it meant preventing cuts to services or extra tax.
Q. Do you think it is more important for the government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?
These findings suggest the public have a more nuanced view of the national economy than the leaders they have elected to run it.
The finding that Coalition voters reject the imperative to bring the budget back into surplus immediately is particularly telling: this is not a sectional view, it is what mainstream Australia believe.
What’s behind the numbers?
First, it may be the way we have asked the question. By drawing a link between cutting services and/or raising taxes, we have actually set out the implications of hairy-chested financial management.
Secondly, there has been general acceptance that the stimulus injections of the Rudd years actually worked – that when the economy is under pressure from global forces, government does have a role in keeping the wheels turning. The fact that people appear prepared to allow the deficit to run reflects this.
Thirdly, we have seen in NSW, particularly, the implications of deficit obsession, the chronic under-investment in infrastructure and services in NSW in the name of budget surpluses. The budget numbers may look nice, but try telling that to a commuter stuck in traffic.
Finally, it may be that in an era of political sloganeering, where ‘budget black holes’ and ‘big, new taxes’ have become cannon fodder, people have just started to turn off.
The deficit/surplus narrative has provided budget day headlines for the past two decades, based on an accepted wisdom that surpluses and good and deficits are bad. As our economic literacy has grown, so has been the imperative to ‘balance the books’.
Paul Keating is rightly credited with educating the Australian public about economics; his recent curmudgeonly performance notwithstanding, he turned economics into a national sport. He would introduce a new trick like floating the dollar or deregulating the banks. then he would convince us that embracing it would help us push up the national league table; a bit like the way we chased Olympic gold.
John Howard inherited Keating’s economy and treated it like a game of cricket; an emphasis on technique, defending his wickets like the test captain he always dreamed of being. Howard with Costello ran budgets that were turbo-charged with GST income, allowing him to translate tax into direct payments to the punters.Kevin Rudd’s started off treating the economy like a game of chess, initiating complex moves before the GFC hit and he switched to roulette, putting all his money on the table. This left an economy that voters accept is in good shape, despite having a headline deficit.
Tony Abbott treats budgets, like everything else, as a blood sport. He has built his economic story around cutting the deficit. It is a sign of his effectiveness in Opposition that he has forced Labor to accept this frame.
But looking at this week’s findings, there is another budget day story the Labor government could be telling that would resonate with the public.
It starts of with the simple fact that, compared to other developed countries, the Australian economy is in good shape.
It then accepts the key point of a budget is to distribute funds to provide services and programs, which by their nature are seen to be in the public interest.
It recognises there are ramifications when the budget is simply cut for the sake of it.
And it ends with the proposition that in uncertain economic times, government has a constructive role to play in maintaining living standards, rather than just seeing its role as getting out of the way.
A budget story along these lines would play out very differently from the one that seems to be emerging – one that gave the public choices, explained its implications and stopped portraying itself as the prize in a crude numbers game.
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