First Published on The Punch 31/08/2010

When the political history of 2010 is written, every element of the closest election in a generation will be rightly scrutinized. The winning side will get home by a hair’s breadth ­ but could it be hair that determines the result?
Because there is a minority group whose natural connection with their chief advocate did not translate into votes on August 22 ­ Australia’s rangas turned on Julia Gillard at the moment she needed their support most.

Exclusive hair-based research from the Punch shows that redheads turned their locks away from Gillard, being the least likely hair coloured group to support the ALP.

Source: Essential Media Communications

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Canberra Reporting…

I’ve heard people referring to our current political state in Canberra as one of ‘political limbo’.

The game where politicians bend over backwards to do everything in their power to get power.

A former leader, stabbed in the back, with at least a season to serve on his contract has been disposed in the middle of the night. So expect Essendon to veer to the right next season. And be plagued by a series of damaging leaks claiming James Hird never even supported parental leave.

Perhaps then they’ll have to negotiate with the independents. Like Mark ‘Choc’ Williams …

On twitter, excitement at the ‘kingmaker’ status of Bob Katter has salivated twits, with the hashtag ‘BobKatterFacts’ starting up.

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First Published on The Punch 24/08/2010

What a great night to be Labor. As the Party swept back into office with a mandate to lead global action on climate change it seemed like the entire nation had grown a few inches taller.

Winning smile….if only. Photo: Gary Ramage

The energy on the ground made the excitement of Kevin 07’s electoral triumph seem like a mere entrée to the main, as thousands of young people on booths around Australia literally enthused swinging voters into embracing the future.

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First Published on The Punch 17/08/2010

The last week of elections is white line fever time. It’s the moment when history is written and the stakes are amplified and everything counts from the fliers, to the bunting, to the final ads, to the body language.

Just over 14 million Australians are registered to vote this Saturday – and if you believe the figure that 10 per cent don’t make up their mind until election day that means that the 1.4 million people who will decide this election are still in play.

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So, the last week of the election begins. For the pundits, exhaustion sets in and it’s only the crazy brave and the well organised who dare to rest.

The remaining time is counted not in sleeps, but in news cycles.

From last night, it would appear the ALP would go into their launch today without the ghosts of their past causing further instability. Latham’s a lunatic, and even if he’s right, so what. And Kevin came off as a self-serving Kim Hughes Bob Hawke- style loser who you think we should be glad is gone.

This is grand final week in politics. The parties are going for the bogan vote and the ‘don’t knows’ are coming in from the cold.

Strangely, in politics, it’s the bogans who come in at the last minute. While in football, the people who know who they’re voting for often don’t pick a team until the final week.

After the eliminations and recriminations, this is the week of the parade, the special breakfasts, a cross dressing footy show and when everyone goes hell for leather on election day.

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The Essential Report has been drawing a bit of comment in recent days, notably for failing to chart a perceived collapse in Labor support in week two of the campaign.

We were in the firing line on the Insiders on Saturday, where George Megalogenis noted that ,as an online poll, we have a different methodology to the major poll, so should not be treated with the same level of credence.

It is true that the Essential Poll uses a different model to the established pollsters – unlike phone-polling, we draw on a community panel of about 100,00 votes established by Your Source.

So why are the Essential numbers different to the phone pollsters? Read more »

First Published on The Punch 10/8/2010

Goldfish have a neat survival mechanism to prevent them ever getting bored – by the time they have swum around the bowl they have forgotten the previous lap. It makes them a lot like voters at election time.

This is why we are grateful when our failed candidates enter the fray to remind us of why we voted against them. And while Mark Latham has rightly been drawing attention, like onlookers to a car crash, another leader took centre stage over the weekend to take us back to meaner and trickier times.

As he moved in to give Tony Abbott a man-hug at the Liberal launch, John Howard reminded us of many of Australia’s most forgettable moments. Given that Abbott is running on a “re-elect the Howard Government” ticket it is worth dwelling on our former Prime Minister’s Ten Most Notable Contributions to the Nation.

Downward Envy – John Howard trained Australians to look down the chain when we were feeling low – welfare cheats, single mums, dole bludgers, these were the people making life hard for decent Australians. As profit levels soared and CEO wages sky-rocketed, we tut-tutted the Paxtons. Read more »

Originally published on The Punch 3/08/2010

Our Prime Minister has joined the bandwagon complaining that this is a focus group- driven election – but isn¹t this the way of the Wiki? After all, books have been written about how the wisdom of the masses provide a more compelling truth than the voice of authority.

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